A UN inquiry has implicated General Assef Shawkat, the brother-in-law of President al-Assad of Syria, and his military intelligence chief in the plot to murder Hariri. Hariri was killed on February 14 when a massive car bomb exploded next to his motorcade on the streets of Beirut. The report said that Mr Abdel-Al had been in contact with Syrian intelligence officers on the day of the blast, as well as with Brigadier-General Faysal Rasheed, chief of Lebanese state security. The report concluded that “There is converging evidence pointing at both Lebanese and Syrian involvement in this terrorist act.”

Given the infiltration of Lebanese institutions and society by the Syrian and Lebanese intelligence working in tandem, it would be difficult to envisage a scenario whereby such a complex assassination plot could have been carried out without their knowledge. There is probable cause to believe that the decision to assassinate former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri could not have been taken without the approval of top-ranked Syrian security official [sic] and could not have been further organised without the collusion of their counterparts in the Lebanese security services.

According to The Times, the report will have profound ramifications for the region as it leaves President al-Assad isolated and might force his Lebanese ally President Lahoud out of office.

Britain, America and France are already preparing follow-up action, to be debated in the UN Security Council next week, that will demand those responsible be placed in custody to stand trial.

The report follows by one week the “suicide” of Ghazi Kanaan, the Syrian Interior Minister. Kanaan was the head of Syria’s military intelligence in Lebanon between 1982 and 2003, and had enormous influence over Lebanon’s administration.

UPDATE. The New York Times reports Asef Shawkat, the president’s brother-in-law, was the “ringleader” in the Hariri assassination. Detlev Mehlis, the United Nations investigator, described Shawkat (who’s married to Assad’s sister) as “the second most powerful man in Syria” and as a “likely candidate” to take over the country if Assad were removed from office. He stated that Syria is a “country run by a little family clique,” said the involvement of any one in Assad’s inner circle would be a severe blow to the government, and averred that “There is absolutely no doubt, it goes right to the top. This is Murder Inc.”

UPDATE 2. From an in-depth commentary in the Wall Street Journal:

Another potentially devastating piece of information is that one of the suspects called Lebanese President Emile Lahoud, a close Syrian ally, on his personal cell phone minutes after the blast. All this means that Mr. Assad is likely to face charges that, by action or omission, he was responsible for Hariri’s death.

[ . . . ] If [Shawkat] were publicly accused, the allegation would create a dilemma for the president, one that could potentially lead to a rift in Syria’s ruling family. Mr. Assad recently told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour that “if indeed there is a Syrian national implicated … he would be considered as a traitor and most severely punished.”

[ . . . ] Because the decision to assassinate Hariri was part of a complex plot developed at senior levels, the president will have to convince the international community that some knew, while others did not. For, as anyone with knowledge of Syria understands, the regime has long thrived on balancing its contending parts, so that any accusation against one senior figure implicitly suggests that others . . . would have been in the loop, since it is improbable that so daring a decision as the murder of a Lebanese prime minister could be taken by one person without the others knowing.

The commentary ends with some ideas as to how Assad might handle the situation:

He can . . . fully comply with the U.N. But that would be political suicide amid the fingers pointed at members of his inner core.

[or] Or Assad can pursue brinksmanship—in Lebanon, Iraq and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict—assuming this will strengthen his hand at a time when there is no ready alternative to his rule. He may be right, and his regime’s collapse may take some time as nobody wishes to see Syria descend into chaos. However, such an impasse only heightens the chances that Syria will face increasingly harsher sanctions and perhaps even military retaliation from the U.S. over Iraq.

UPDATE 3. The BBC reports that the Syrian and Lebanese governments have denied any involvement in the Hariri assassination. Syria’s information minister said the UN report

. . . is a political statement against Syria that is based on a set of stories by some witnesses who are known for their anti-Syria positions, including media and political figures. I believe that this report was far from professional. I don’t think that it will lead us to the truth. It will be part of this great subterfuge and tension in the region.

The Lebanese presidency issued a statement rejecting the claim.

The press office in the presidential palace categorically denies this information, which has no basis in truth and is a part of a pressure campaign against the president.

UPDATE 4. The complete text of the Mehlis Report is available at the Counterterrorism Blog, as is the transmittal letter from Kofi Annan to the President of the U.N. Security Council.

UPDATE 5. The Washington Post provides a round-up of world opinion.