The forecast from NOAA at 7 AM EDT:

EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA CONTINUES TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENSINSULA . . . WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 910 MB OR 26.87 INCHES.




As far as Florida is concerned, the good news in the latest NOAA report is that Wilma is continuing to track in a West-Northwest direction longer than previously anticipated. This increases the probability that it will pass over the Yucatan penisula, decreasing its intensity. In addition, Wilma’s forward motion has unexpectedly slowed, increasing the chances that it will be captured by the approaching cold front and delaying its Florida landfall. The further West this occurs, the greater the wind shear and the further south the eye of the storm will track. South Florida is by no means out of the woods, but the likelihood of a killer storm passing over densely populated areas is diminishing, at least for the time being. So is the likelihood that we will have to evacuate.

Last year, Charlie’s unexpected right turn reminded us that hurricanes have a mind of their own. While it ain’t over ‘til it’s over, the latest news is nevertheless good news.

Via the Naples Daily News, hurricane preparation in Collier Country are available here.

Via the Ft. Myers News-Press, Lee County’s preparations are summarized here.