In the recent avalanche of editorials, op-eds, commentaries, articles, and books on Iraq, there’s surprisingly little attention paid to our rules of engagement (ROE), much less to the impact of those rules on the effectiveness of our military actions.
In the past few days, however, two well-known pundits have at least raised the issue.
On November 15, Ralph Peters claimed that the debate over whether to try to save the day by deploying more troops or withdrawing some misses the point:
What really matters is what our forces are ordered – and permitted – to do. With political correctness permeating our government and even the upper echelons of the military, we never tried the one technique that has a solid track record of defeating insurgents if applied consistently: the rigorous imposition of public order. That means killing the bad guys. Not winning their hearts and minds, placating them or bringing them into the government. Killing them. If you’re not willing to lay down a rule that any Iraqi or foreign terrorist masquerading as a security official or military member will be shot, you can’t win. And that’s just one example of the type of sternness this sort of fight requires.
Two days later, Victor Davis Hanson reacted to the calls from Senator McCain and scattered others to increase the size of the American force in Iraq with these observations:
We know that that another 50,000 or so Americans would raise our profile in Iraq, spur more domestic hysteria, increase the cost of the war, increase the likelihood of Iraqi dependency, and enlarge the rear echelon compounds throughout Iraq that support our frontline fighters. But we are not sure that they would bring about greater security — that is, unless they were allowed different rules of engagement than are currently allowed in Iraq.Will the thousands of more troops get permission from the Iraqi government to disarm the militias and smash insurgent enclaves? Can they target a Sadr and his thugs with impunity? Will they be able to kill Syrian and Iranian infiltrators across the border? Will they be able to target those in “civilian†dress who help plant the IEDs? And is all that not happening now because there are too few boots on the ground?
While Peters and Hanson perform a useful service by making an issue of our rules of engagement, neither has a word to say about what the rules are. For that, we must turn to an article by Colin Kahl in the current issue of Foreign Affairs. In “How We Fight,” Kahl describes our rules of engagement in considerable detail.
From the outset of the war,
the U.S. military has put in place several mechanisms to ensure compliance with the principles of distinction and proportionality. In the lead-up to the invasion, the Pentagon developed the “joint target list,” an inventory of all potential targets for coalition forces, which was vetted by judge advocates and other legal advisers. Certain operations directed against Saddam Hussein’s regime were deemed off-limits because they targeted civilians or risked producing disproportionate damage to civilians and civilian infrastructure. Starting in late 2002, the Pentagon also enlisted UN agencies and nongovernmental organizations to help draw up a “no-strike” list including thousands of schools, mosques, sensitive cultural sites, hospitals, water-treatment facilities, power plants, and other elements of civilian infrastructure. The list placed significant constraints on air and land operations. During the initial ground invasion, for example, the artillery batteries used by U.S. forces were programmed with a list of sites that could not be fired on without a manual override.
The no-strike list isn’t the only measure taken to limit collateral damage:
The U.S. military has also tried to limit risks to civilians by reviewing its military targets with the collateral damage estimation methodology (CDEM), which uses computer software and human analysis to estimate possible civilian casualties for every target studied. The CDEM requires commanders and their legal advisers to ask themselves five questions to determine whether a given target is a legitimate one. Can they positively identify the person or the site according to the current ROE? Is there a protected civilian facility or significant environmental concern within the range of the weapon to be used? Can damage to that concern be avoided by attacking the target with a different weapon or a different method? If not, how many people are likely to be injured or killed in the attack? Must a higher commander be called for permission? When the targets considered represent a risk of “high collateral damage,” the CDEM requires political approval by the secretary of defense and, during major combat, the president.
The rules of engagement have also sought to achieve a balance each troop’s legitimate right to self-defense with the importance of complying with the laws of war:
They attempt to maintain this balance by providing troops with a clear sense of what constitutes a legitimate military target. During major combat in Iraq, the criterion was status-based. Individuals or groups, namely Iraqi military and paramilitary forces, that were “declared hostile forces” under the ROE, could be attacked on sight until they were wounded or they surrendered. As the war transitioned into a counterinsurgency mission and U.S. forces confronted adversaries who were largely indistinguishable from the civilian population, the criterion became conduct-based: U.S. troops must now positively identify a “hostile act” (such as the firing of an automatic weapon in their direction) or a “hostile intent” (such as the brandishing of a rocket-propelled grenade or the planting of an improvised explosive device) before they may fire their weapons.
If the naked eye isn’t sufficient to positively identify a hostile force, act, or intent before attacking,
U.S. forces rely on advanced optics. Forward observers are used to identify and “paint” targets, or provide coordinates for laser- or GPS-guided bomb attacks. Air force, navy, and marine fighter aircraft have also been retrofitted with new reconnaissance pods that allow real-time overhead surveillance and streaming video, thereby helping ground forces distinguish insurgents from civilians during raids and combat missions.
Another precaution pertains to the choice of weapons:
U.S. forces have been reluctant to use artillery against insurgents, even when they have been under mortar and rocket fire. Artillery systems (such as howitzers, mortars, and ground-launched rockets) have a large radius of destruction and so have a high potential for collateral damage, especially in densely populated areas. Instead, U.S. forces have either relied on close air support and ground forces that can keep their “eyes on the target” or refrained from attacking altogether. This summer, for example, as I was conducting interviews in the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, the Green Zone was hit by two rockets and two mortars. Although the attack’s point of origin—a residential neighborhood near Sadr City—was determined quickly, the U.S. military chose not to fire back with artillery.
Our rules of engagement have also emphasized the importance of using proportionate force when engaging legitimate military targets in order to minimize collateral damage:
The current rules explicitly require U.S. troops to respond to a hostile act or intent with “graduated” force. Under many circumstances, U.S. forces may engage in deadly violence only after warning their targets and trying nonlethal measures against them to no avail. The U.S. military also frequently engages in “weaponeering”—selecting the most specifically tailored type and quantity of weapon necessary to produce a desired effect. When air strikes are required, it increasingly relies on precision-guided munitions, such as laser-, GPS-, and optically guided weapons. During the major combat phase of the war in Iraq, 68 percent of the munitions used were precision-guided, compared with 7-8 percent during the 1991 Gulf War, 30 percent in Kosovo, and 60 percent in Afghanistan. The U.S. military has also developed munitions with smaller payloads to ensure that it uses the smallest force necessary, and it relies heavily on penetrating munitions with delayed fuses to confine the damage caused by blasts and fragmentation to the area of impact. Additional mitigation techniques, including adjusting the timing, angles, and azimuths of attacks, have also been regularly employed to reduce risks to civilians.
Finally, Kahl notes that the number of U.S. air strikes has declined sharply since the end of major combat operations, indicating the U.S. military’s heightened concern for proportionality:
Official figures suggest that U.S. planes launched 18,695 strikes during the first 30 days of the war, compared with just 285 strikes in 2004 and 306 in 2005. Other estimates put the 2005 total at 654. Even with the higher number, however, there were almost as many air strikes per day during the major combat phase (an average of 623) as there were during all of 2005.
Without maintaining that our forces have never deviated from these rules of engagement, it’s clear that our intent has been to fight a “civilized” war. From a humanitarian standpoint, this objective is commendable. However, fighting with one hand tied behind our back (to borrow a phrase from the Vietnam era) has undoubtedly resulted in greater American casualties and made it more difficult to prevail against an enemy that obeys no rules. The limitations, by enhancing the ability of the insurgents and terrorists to carry on the fight, have probably resulted in more, not fewer, civilian casualties. If our rules of engagement were formulated, in part, to present a better face to the “international community,” they have failed. Nobody has commended us for our good behavior.
The rules of engagement we’ve followed in Iraq raise an issue than couldn’t be more fundamental. If our twenty-first century conflicts are going to pit us (or, I might add, Israel) against extremist groups whose tactics know no bounds and we allow our conduct to be constrained by the dictates of international law, as defined by such multilateral institutions as the UN, we are condemning ourselves to fighting protracted conflicts that erode American willpower, as has happened with Iraq. If we give precedence to conforming to international norms over winning, it won’t escape the notice of militants, who will use every opportunity to weaken us.
A major issue is mutuality of commitment to the Law of War.
Non-national, non-uniformed combatatants who do not follow the Law of War should not get the benefit of these laws.
These combatants have been called Francs-tireurs.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franc-tireur
In the Hostages Trial after WWII The Allied Tribunal aquitted German General List of murdering partisans, stating:
“We are obliged to hold that such guerrillas were francs tireurs who, upon capture, could be subjected to the death penalty. Consequently, no criminal responsibility attaches to the defendant List because of the execution of captured partisans…”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hostages_Trial
“U.S. troops must now positively identify a “hostile act” (such as the firing of an automatic weapon in their direction) or a “hostile intent” (such as the brandishing of a rocket-propelled grenade or the planting of an improvised explosive device) before they may fire their weapons.”
This has led to the insanity of allowing gangs of civilian men carrying automatic weapons to roam the streets without being challenged by the U.S. military. Only when they directly fire on our Soldiers and Marines may our military confront them.
Here is my idea. Start shooting them on sight. How long do you think it would take for word to get around that one may not roam the streets out of uniform with an automatic weapon? At first I thought we should drop leaflets before starting to shoot the armed thugs. Then, I realized that was a waste of paper.
During Desert Storm, Iraqi Air Force aircraft were fleeing to Iran. U.S. pilots were instructed to not follow the Iraqi aircraft into Iran.
One day a USAF flight chased a large flight of Iraqi jet fighters to Iran, closed in on one, and shot it down. The U.S. pilot making the kill then realized he had made the kill over Iran. He came home and dutifully reported the ROE violation.
It turned out that the AWACS aircraft tracking the combat had observed that after the one Iraqi was shot down, the others in that pack all went into afterburner to get away, ran out of fuel as result, and crashed. The American had downed 17 Iraqis with one missile.
Just that once, they agreed to let the ROE violation pass.
I doubt most of our guys are that lucky.
[...] Marc Shulman from American Future has some interesting things to say about the evolving ROE in Iraq since the initial invasion. It has been quite evident the opportunity lost in not killing the cleric Al Sadr back in 2004 has cost the US significantly not only in the loss of US Troop lives but also has emboldened the militias who have murdered a multitude of Iraqi civilians. Increasing the number of American Troops isn’t going to solve this problem unless there is a change with the Rules of Engagement. The rules of engagement we’ve followed in Iraq raise an issue than couldn’t be more fundamental. If our twenty-first century conflicts are going to pit us (or, I might add, Israel) against extremist groups whose tactics know no bounds and we allow our conduct to be constrained by the dictates of international law, as defined by such multilateral institutions as the UN, we are condemning ourselves to fighting protracted conflicts that erode American willpower, as has happened with Iraq. If we give precedence to conforming to international norms over winning, it won’t escape the notice of militants, who will use every opportunity to weaken us. [...]
The idea of an impromptu counter-mortar or rocket attack is a no-go from the very start, and American Forces know this.
Why? Simply because the attacks we (I was there in 2004) sustain are done by “shoot & skoot” skirmishers. Three of the bad guys will drive up to a convienent location. One opens the car door and “emplaces” the mortar tube. His buddy loads the mortar with 3-6 quick salvos, and they drive off immediately.
So what if we generally know where they were when the rounds were fired or launched. They have left their firing position even before their un-aimed rounds hit the ground. Consequently, catching them in the act is the only sure way of stopping them.
[...] In a recent post, I described how the rules of engagement governing our military operations in Iraq are making it more difficult for us to suppress the insurgency. A rule of engagement of a different sort—Musharaff’s refusal to allow NATO forces to pursue Taliban fighters crossing the border from Afghanistan into Pakistan—is having the same effect in the battle with another group of insurgents who, like their counterparts in Iraq, recognize no rules of engagement. [...]
The Immorality of Fighting a War Morally…
Marc Schulman preforms an extremely important service in his post describing Our Rules of Engagement in Iraq. He reviews some of the ROE which have hampered our military in Iraq and raises important questions:The rules of engagement we’ve followed in…
Marc,
What were the Soviets’ ROE in Afghanistan? Do you think that a more unrestrained approach helped the Soviets to defeat the Afghan insurgents? Or not?
Further, you have to realize that these ROE are not designed to appease international audiences alone, but to better conform to counterinsurgency doctrine that recognizes that a policy of killing enemies must be coupled wit a strategy of not creating more than you kill.
The Peters fallacy is that our strategy is aimed at winning the hearts and minds of actual insurgents. It is not. And never has been. It is the underlying population – whose support we need to root out insurgents, and prevent a replenishment of ranks – who are the target of our restraint.
If you start using arty in populated areas to get at phantom mortar firing “shoot and scoot” teams, you are probably going to kill a handful of insurgents, and create scores more who are duty-bound to avenge the deaths of their relatives. Same with overreliance on air strikes.
Counterinsurgency is called eating soup with a knife for a reason.
Beware the luster of “easy solutions” such as “just killing more people” and using more firepower. Those easy solutions tend not to solve much.
Eric,
It wasn’t my intent to advocate “easy solutions†such as “just killing more people†and using more firepower. My primary purpose was purely educational—having found a resource (the Foreign Affairs article) that allowed me to learn, for the first time, what our ROE in Iraq are, I thought others would be interested.
But beyond that, I think I raised some valid issues in my concluding paragraphs—issues that can’t be trivialized by making reference to the USSR’s ROE in Afghanistan.
Marc,
Your last paragraph raised questions about compliance with international norms on war, and how this compliance impacts our ability to defeat hardened insurgencies.
My point about the Soviet experience in Afghanistan (and Checnya for that matter) was to argue that even states that have no regard for international norms run into the same problems with counterinsurgency.
I doubt we would fare much better if we were to “go Soviet” as it were.
It’s not our ROE that are causing a stalemate, it is the nature of counterinsurgency operations generally speaking.
Now, there’s a chance that an absolutely unrestrained, violent approach might work. But at that point, it’s not the loss of international favor that should concern us, but rather the loss of our nation’s soul.
After all, Saddam Hussein seemed to be able to crack down on restive elements in his country, but then, he was Saddam Hussein.
If winning in Iraq means adopting Saddam Hussein’s tactics en masse, would that still be victory?
That is the conundrum. Eating soup with a knife.
Eric,
You raise some valid points and I want to cogitate for a while before responding to them. I’ll write a post in reply, but give me a day or two.
I hope you have an enjoyable Thanksgiving.
[...] American Future, “Our Rules of Engagement in Iraq†[...]
Happy Thanksgiving as well Marc!!
[...] 1. Unsell It, The Glittering Eye 2. Bolton for the Door, Soccer Dad 3. UN General Assembly Condemns Israel for Defending Itself . . . Again, Joshuapundit 4. Our Rules of Engagement in Iraq, American Future 5. What The Democrat “Brain Trust” Thinks About America, Rhymes With Right 6. Naming the Price, Waiting for Response, AbbaGav 7. Is This How EduCorruption Smells?, The Education Wonks 8. Media Icons, Done With Mirrors 9. A Dirty Little Secret, ShrinkWrapped 10. All Your Smoking Are Belong To Us, Right Wing Nut House 11. When Good Men Run in the Other Direction, Gates of Vienna 12. So, What About the Polar Bears, The Sundries Shack [...]
[...] Yours truly’s “Our Rules of Engagement in Iraq” took first place in the Council category. In the runner-up spot is Done with Mirror’s “Media Icons.” [...]
[...] The Watcher’s Council has announced its picks for the most outstanding posts of the preceding week. The winning Council post was American Future’s post, “Our Rules of Engagement in Iraqâ€. Second place honors went to Done With Mirrors’s “Media Iconsâ€. [...]
The Council Has Spoken:...
The winning Council post this week was Marc Schulman’s elucidation of Our Rules of Engagement in Iraq (which I wrote about here); not surprisingly, our ROE seem designed to enable us to lose the war while maintaining a moral high…
[...] The votes are in for this week’s Watchers Council and the winner in the Council category is American Future for “Our Rules of Engagement in Iraq.” Finishing second was “Media Icons” by Done with Mirrors. [...]
I am still looking for the ROE that will allow a military force to WIN a fight against terrorists or an insurgency: forces that conceal themselves among a generally supportive non-combatant population.
HOW can we fight terrorists or insurgents and win?
The ROE described above guarantee a very long struggle that is, at best, a stalemate.
Democracies by their nature cannot support a years-long stalemate.
These ROE guarantee our defeat.
But though I have searched at great length, I have searched in vain. I continue to ask: WHAT ARE THE ROE by which we can defeat terrorists and insurgents? We must answer this question or we will be faced, again and again, with defeat.
[...] Marc Shulman from American Future has some interesting things to say about the evolving ROE in Iraq since the initial invasion. It has been quite evident the opportunity lost in not killing the cleric Al Sadr back in 2004 has cost the US significantly not only in the loss of US Troop lives but also has emboldened the militias who have murdered a multitude of Iraqi civilians. Increasing the number of American Troops isn’t going to solve this problem unless there is a change with the Rules of Engagement. The rules of engagement we’ve followed in Iraq raise an issue than couldn’t be more fundamental. If our twenty-first century conflicts are going to pit us (or, I might add, Israel) against extremist groups whose tactics know no bounds and we allow our conduct to be constrained by the dictates of international law, as defined by such multilateral institutions as the UN, we are condemning ourselves to fighting protracted conflicts that erode American willpower, as has happened with Iraq. If we give precedence to conforming to international norms over winning, it won’t escape the notice of militants, who will use every opportunity to weaken us. [...]
[...] Read more: here [...]
[...] The U.S. government should issue an ultimatum to Prime Minister Maliki. The ultimatum should state that the U.S. will enlarge its troop commitment for a designated period of time, subject to the following conditions: (1) our military actions will not be subject to review by the government of Iraq, (2) our rules of engagement will be eased, and (3) the Iraqi government will issue a detailed agenda for reconciliation negotiations that will begin simultaneously with the buildup of American forces. [...]
[...] As I discussed in considerable detail in an earlier post, the U.S., in order to minimize civilian casualties in Iraq, has conformed to strict rules of engagement. I concluded that post with these words: [...]
[...] Our Rules of Engagement in IraqAmerican Future [...]
[...] Last November, in a post titled “Our Rules of Engagement in Iraq,” I included substantial excerpts from an article in Foreign Affairs by Colin Kahl and concluded with these thoughts: [...]
[...] been following this topic closely (here, here). In today’s Washington Times, there’s an important op-ed by Maj. Gen. William B. Caldwell [...]
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