The New York Times reports that National Security Adviser Steven Hadley has arrived in Baghdad for talks with Iraq’s national security adviser, Mowaffak al-Rubaie. In a statement, Rubaie said the men discussed the work of a committee established by Prime Minister Maliki and President Bush to speed training for the Iraqi Army.
In another article, the Times said that one option widely discussed in Washington and Baghdad in the days Hadley’s arrival is a “substantial increase” in the number of American and Iraqi troops patrolling Baghdad. No decision has been made about this option, however, and American officials in Washington and Baghdad said it was unlikely that any announcements would be made until after the November 7 elections. Bush administration officials have said that any major changes in American policy will require bipartisan support, and they are clearly waiting to see which party will control the House, and possibly the Senate, before proceeding. However, senior administration officials have also said that if the two governments agree on a change of plan, they will put it in place even before the Iraq Study Group, led by James Baker III and Lee Hamilton issues its report. That report is expected in December.
Other proposals now being discussed inside and outside the two governments range from how to permit greater autonomy for Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish sections of the country without splitting the country apart; how to share oil revenues among Iraq’s population; and an amnesty for those who attacked Iraqi or American troops. The Times avers that many of these options may not be dealt with for months, because Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds within the “unity government†in Baghdad are still far apart on issues touching on Iraq’s division of power and wealth.
Meanwhile, Hadley described a series of American goals, including a new effort to get more financial and other support from neighboring states, saying that “given the risks of chaos in Iraq, and given the threat and aspirations of Iran,†each country in the region has “a huge stake†in a stable Iraq. But such appeals have failed in the past.
Perhaps this time will be different. On Sunday, al-Rubaie said that while Shiites “have the numbers†in Baghdad, Sunnis who joined in building the new Iraq could look forward to “sharing the wealth†in oil. However, he implied that Sunnis were having difficulty reconciling to the new political realities. “Some of these politicians are not prepared, mentally or psychologically, to make the compromises necessary for us to live cohabitively,†he said.
On the related issues of reconciliation and amnesty, which Maliki made a centerpiece of his policy when he took office in May, the outlook isn’t promising. The amnesty would cover both those responsible for the repressive violence during Mr. Hussein’s 24 years in power, and the killing that has ensued, by insurgents and sectarian militias, since his fall.
According to the Times, Iraqi officials designated by Mr. Maliki to lead the reconciliation effort now seem to be despairing. Sayed Ayyad Jamaluddin, a secular Shiite who is a member of the Maliki-appointed Higher Council for National Reconciliation, said last month that “Iraq has only two options, fragmentation or civil war, and civil war will be a catastrophe, because it will be fought on the basis of religion.â€
Reports on the penetration by militias of the Iraq police are highly disturbing. The Washington Post reports that Captain Alexander Shaw, head of the police transition team of the 372nd Military Police Battalion, a Washington-based unit charged with overseeing training of all Iraqi police in western Baghdad has said that “To be perfectly honest, I’m not sure we’re ever going to have police here that are free of the militia influence.” Shaw added that seventy percent of the Iraqi police force has been infiltrated by militias, primarily the Mahdi Army.
The Posts adds that “American soldiers said that although they gather evidence of police ties to the militias and present it to Iraqi officials, no one has ever been criminally charged or even lost their jobs.”
