From the New York Times:


China called the test a “flagrant and brazen” violation of international opinion and said it “firmly opposes” North Korea’s conduct. The Chinese, who have been North Korea’s main ally for 60 years but have grown increasingly frustrated by the its defiance of Beijing, sent an emergency alert to Washington through the United States Embassy in Beijing. Within minutes, President Bush was notified, shortly after 10 p.m., by his national security adviser, Stephen Hadley, that a test was imminent.

Senior Bush administration officials said that they had little reason to doubt the announcement, and warned that the test would usher in a new era of confrontation with the isolated and unpredictable country run by President Kim Jong-il.

Early Monday morning, even before the test was confirmed, Bush administration officials were holding conference calls to discuss ways to further cut off a country that is already subject to sanctions, and hard-liners said the moment had arrived for neighboring countries, especially China and Russia, to cut off the trade and oil supplies that have been Mr. Kim’s lifeline.

From the Washington Post:

Today’s test appeared linked to the ninth anniversary of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il’s appointment as head of the Korean Workers’ Party. And it came just one day before South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki Moon will face a vote on his bid to become the next secretary general of the United Nations.

The test alters the balance of power in northeast Asia and touches off grave new concerns about the proliferation of refined nuclear material or devices to other rogue states or terrorist groups. North Korea, a secretive communist state which strictly limits all contact with the outside world, already generates tens of millions of dollars a year through its thriving underground sales of missiles and other sophisticated weaponry to nations including Iran and Syria.”

It was also set to bring Pyongyang’s four-year standoff with Washington over its nuclear programs to a head. U.S. intelligence sources said the Bush administration is talking about immediate naval action around North Korea. “This won’t exactly be a blockade, which is an act of war. But we could stop and inspect all ships in and out of North Korea,” one senior U.S. government official said.

China responded to news of the test with strong language Monday. “The Chinese government is resolutely opposed to the nuclear test by the DPRK,” Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

U.S. officials had braced for the test Sunday after they received an early warning from China, sources said. The Chinese government told U.S. officials late Sunday that Pyongyang had informed Beijing that a test would take place at about 10 p.m. EST.

The U.S. government planned to make a statement condemning the test and calling an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council, officials said. U.S. officials are considering a number of other actions to take against Pyongyang, which could also include new economic measures.

Japan, which considers itself the most vulnerable to a North Korean attack, agreed with U.S. officials to immediately call for an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council to seek a tough, binding resolution that would force North Koreans back to stalled six-nation talks aimed at dismantling its nuclear weapons programs.

Japan, which has already imposed limited economic sanctions on North Korea, has additionally said it will take a host of harsher measures. But few analysts believe Washington and Tokyo’s efforts alone would serve to successfully pressure North Korea back to the negotiations.

Instead, analysts pointed to the still unclear responses from China and South Korea, the impoverished North’s two largest benefactors who have kept Kim’s government afloat through billions of dollars in trade and aid out of fear that a messy collapse his government could generate an economic disaster of refugees flooding over their borders. South Korea has been unclear about what impact a test would have on its detente with the North, which has including the construction of tourism resorts and a vast industrial park on the other side of the border. But analysts were mostly watching reaching from China, which has the power to cut off flows of oil into North Korea.

U.S. officials had particularly put stock in China’s ability to control the North Koreans, faith that analysts now say appears to have been ill placed. The Chinese, publicly and unambiguously, did warn the North Korea’s against testing since they announced their attention to do so last Tuesday. But the North, long thought be under China’s sphere of influence, seems to have dismissed Beijing’s orders.

“The North Koreans are making a statement that ‘you guys can gang up on us. but you can’t change us,’ ” said Lho Kyong Soo, international relations professor at Seoul National University. “Now, they’re hoping they could get away with this like Pakistan. They’re saying treat us with respect and accept us this way because we are not going to change.”

From the Wall Street Journal:

“China expresses its resolute opposition” to the test, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on its Web site. It complained that the North “defied the universal opposition of international society” by conducting the test. The five-sentence statement made no mention of possible Chinese sanctions or any other official response. But it was the most strongly worded Chinese reaction to date to the North’s nuclear program and dropped the conciliatory tone of Beijing’s previous statements.

“China strongly demands that North Korea abide by its non-nuclear pledge and avoid any other actions that further worsen the situation, and return to the track of the six-party talks,” the statement said.

A test would put Beijing—North Korea’s prime benefactor—in an extremely difficult position and would be sure to anger the Chinese leadership, which had issued stern warnings to the North not to go ahead with the detonation.

China is North Korea’s major supplier of food, energy and consumer goods. But it has been loath to squeeze the regime of Kim Jong Il, fearing it could precipitate a collapse, leading to refugee flows into China or, more worrisome from a Chinese strategic perspective, to conflict on the peninsula or the absorption of North Korea by U.S. ally South Korea.

Beijing policymakers also worry that North Korea’s move to become an unambiguous nuclear state could upset the balance of power in East Asia, encouraging Japan to strengthen its military capabilities.

If North Korea’s claims of a nuclear test prove true, Japan would appear to be the most immediately vulnerable to North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. It is within range of the North’s missiles, as demonstrated in 1998, when one was launched over Japan and into the Pacific Ocean. China is a traditional ally of the North, and Pyongyang sees South Korea as part of the same nation.

However, regardless of what may or may not have happened in North Korea, experts don’t expect Japan to move toward developing nuclear weapons of its own. Such a move would have the potential to kick off an arms race in the region and put Japan in even more danger. Instead, Japan would continue to rely on its security treaty with the U.S. for nuclear defense, and boost the scope of this—as shown by its involvement in the missile defense initiative.