Needless to say, an ABC News report that bin Laden won’t face capture in Pakistan if he agrees to lead a “peaceful life” has created quite a stir. The context for this astounding news (if it’s not a fabrication), which ABC attributes to “Pakistani officials”, is a “peace deal” between the government and the Taliban, who are firmly entrenched in the North Waziristan region of the country.
The New York Times says that “The deal is widely viewed as a face-saving retreat for the Pakistani Army, which has taken a heavy battering at the hands of the mountain tribesmen and militants, who are allied with the Taliban and Al Qaeda.” It notes that the agreement was reached a day before a visit by President Musharraf to Afghanistan, who will present it as proof of Pakistan’s effort to deal with militancy and terrorism. The Times adds that the agreement appears to be similar to an earlier one signed in South Waziristan, which essentially allowed the militants to remain armed and at large in return for not attacking the Pakistani military. Disturbingly, a spokesman for the militants denied that there were any foreign militants in North Waziristan.
According to the Washington Post, the accord “aroused alarm” among some analysts in Afghanistan. They expressed concern that, whatever the militias promise, a Pakistani army withdrawal might backfire, emboldening the groups to operate more freely in Pakistan and to infiltrate more aggressively into Afghanistan to fight U.S. and allied forces there. The agreement, says the Post, could add a new element of tension to Musharraf’s visit, aimed at smoothing over his relations with Afghan President Hamid Karzai. The two Muslim leaders have clashed “heatedly” over allegations that Taliban forces in Afghanistan are receiving support and shelter from inside Pakistan. The Post adds that Pakistani army units have met with fierce opposition in North Waziristan and critics say their presence has undermined the tribal political system needed to counter rising Islamic militancy.
None of Pakistan’s major newspapers mention bin Laden or Zawahiri. But the PakTribune, DAWN, and The Nation all confirm that an agreement has been reached between the government and tribesman of the North Waziristan Agency (NWA).
- The Pak Tribune says that the agreement is the result of the 45-member grand jirga that was convened on July 20 and that a unlateral ceasefire procalimed by the NWA on June 25 paved the way for the agreement. Terms of the pact include the following: (1) Pakastani army and law enforcing agencies and state properties will not be attacked; (2) no target killing will be carried out; (3) no parallel administration will be established in the area; (4) no cross border movement to Afghanistan for militant activities will be carried out; (5) no ingress in settled areas adjacent to North Waziristan Agency will take place; (6) all foreigners in North Waziristan will leave Pakistan [bin Laden and Zawahiri are foreigners], but those who are unable to do so for certain genuine reasons [who decides what the genuine reasons are?] will respect law of the land and abide by all conditions of the agreement; (7) the government will release all persons it captured during its earlier operations in the area (most of them have previously been released); (8) the government will resolve all disputes in accordance with tribal customs and traditions; and (9) compensation will be given to innocent tribesmen who lost their lives and properties during the recent unrest/ operation.
- DAWN notes that the signing ceremony was heavily guarded by armed Taliban and journalists were not allowed to film the event.
Given that the jirga was convened on July 20 and a similar agreement was reached in South Waziristan, I presume that the U.S. government hasn’t been caught by surprise. If so, there must be some very interesting conversations going on between Bush and Musharaff. One possibility—the most hopeful possibility—is that, with the withdrawal of Pakistani troops from the North Waziristan, it would be easier for our troops to cross the Pakistani border in search of bin Laden without raising the ire of Pakistanis living in government-controlled areas. Stay tuned.
[...] Marc Schulman of American Future has an excellent media round-up. [...]
I am of the opnion that this is desigend to reduce conflict between the Pakistani security forces in Waziristan – who did not have control anyway – and our forces operating in Afghanistan.
In other words, the area has just been declared a Free Fire Zone. Load up the B-52’s at Diego and let’s get to work.
This may be another exercise in taking options off the table by seeing if they work, and then, if they do not, trying something else.
Austin Bay’s column at Strategy Page tells us of a basic change on the ground in the Middle East.
“Iraq’s free elections and its new democratic government—by design—offer an alternative to the tyrants’ and the terrorists’ violent dynamic. Sept. 11 was an “asymmetric” terror attack on a “conventional” America. Iraq is “asymmetric” offensive political action led by America, an offensive designed to empower Middle Eastern societies that will police terror, not promote it.
In July of this year, Iraq’s Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki appeared before a joint session of the U.S. Congress and said, “Iraqis are your allies in the war on terror.”
The violent dynamic isn’t broken—but Arab Muslims are now fighting for their own freedom. Five years after 9-11, that isn’t a design, but a fact.”
http://www.strategypage.com/onpoint/articles/20069661547.asp
[...] An eminent American blogger called Marc Schulman has this to say about the “treaty”. [...]
[...] Earlier this month, an agreement was reached between Pakistan’s government and the North Waziristan Agency (NWA). Among other things, the NWA’s tribal leaders agreed to a cease-fire with the Pakistan army, not to allow native militants to cross the Afghanistan border, and to force all foreign militants to leave the country. The New York Times’ take on the deal was that ""[t]he deal is widely viewed as a face-saving retreat for the Pakistani Army, which has taken a heavy battering at the hands of the mountain tribesmen and militants, who are allied with the Taliban and Al Qaeda." It noted that the agreement was reached a day before a visit by President Musharraf to Afghanistan, who would present it as proof of Pakistan’s effort to deal with militancy and terrorism. The Washington Post took a more dismal view. Noting that Presidents Musharaff and Karzai had been clashing "heatedly" over allegations that Taliban forces in Afghanistan were receiving support and shelter from inside Pakistan, the Post averred that the accord "aroused alarm" among some analysts in Afghanistan, who expressed concern that, whatever the militias promised, a Pakistani army withdrawal might backfire, emboldening militants to operate more freely in Pakistan and to infiltrate more aggressively into Afghanistan. After meeting with Karzai, Musharaff said the agreement with the NWA was intended to end attacks on Afghanistan and training or militant activity on both sides of the border: ‘’No militant activity, no training activity, they have accepted this. This is the bottom line of the peace agreement.’‘ Karzai was skeptical, saying "[l]et’s see how it is going to be implemented and what will happen." His concern was well-founded—six months earlier, during a visit to Islamabad, Karzai presented Musharraf with an intelligence dossier on Taliban leaders who used Pakistan as a sanctuary. Musharraf dismissed the intelligence as out of date and ‘’nonsense.’’ The day after his meeting with Karzai, Musharaff addressed the Afghan parliament. In what the New York Times described as a "conciliatory speech," he conceded that Al Qaeda and Taliban insurgents had been crossing the border into Afghanistan, denied that he or his government were backing them, and, in a major policy shift, pledged for the first time to seek out and destroy the command structure of insurgents linked to Afghanistan’s ousted Taliban regime. [...]
[...] A Safe Haven for bin Laden? (September 6) [...]
[...] eminent American blogger called Marc Schulman has this to say about the [...]