UPDATE: MY FIRST THOUGHTS
While there may be a initial burst of violence aimed at both Americans—for killing its leader—and at Shia Iraqis—to show that the mayhem will continue, there will be a struggle for power within the ranks of Al Qaeda in Iraq. Given the nature of the organization, the struggle will be a violent one, depleting the ranks of the terrorists and diverting their time, energy, and attention away from killing their enemies. So, after an initial spike in violence, killings will fall to a level below that which prevailed when Zarqawi was alive. How long the first of these stages will last is anybody’s guess, but I expect it to be measured in weeks, not months.
When a new leader with a diminished cadre of terrorists takes over, he will lack Zarqawi’s control. It will be more difficult for him to coordinate multiple, simultaneous attacks—the Al Qaeda trademark. This will give the reality-based impressions—in Al Qaeda’s ranks, among Sunni and Shia Iraqis, and among Western politicians and media—that the insurgency is weakening and the likelihood of a civil war is diminishing. Some of the terrorists will decide that it’s a lost cause, further reducing their ranks.
Public opinion in the U.S. will become decidedly more optimistic. The promised drawdown of our troops will become a realistic expectation. Bush’s approval rating will rise.
Yes, it’s an optimistic scenario, but, at least for now, that’s how I see it.
END OF UPDATE
At 4:08 AM EDT, the BBC reported that Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki announced at a news conference that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has been killed in a U.S. air raid near Baquba. The head of US forces in Iraq, General George Casey, said Zarqawi’s body was identified through fingerprints and facial recognition.
“Today we have managed to put an end to Zarqawi,” Maliki said, sparking sustained applause. Maliki said intelligence from Iraqi people had helped track down Zarqawi, who had a $25m price on his head. “What happened today is a result of co-operation for which we have been asking from our masses and the citizens of our country,” he said.
The prime minister urged Iraqis to join politcal dialogue rather than violence, vowing to “carry on on the same path… by killing all the terrorists”.
Also reported by the AP (in the New York Times): The AP report said that Zarqawi was killed along with seven aides Wednesday evening in a house 30 miles northeast of Baghdad in the volatile province of Diyala. Also, (1) Maliki was was flanked by U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad and U.S. Gen. George Casey, the top U.S. commander in Iraq at the news conference, and (2) Maliki said the air strike was the result of intelligence reports provided to Iraqi security forces by residents in the area, and U.S. forces acted on the information.
According to Deutsche Welle (DW), Maliki said “This is a message to those who chose the path of violence to change their direction before it is too late. I thank our forces, our police and the multinational forces for what they are doing in pursuing the terrorists, and that “This is a message to those who chose the path of violence to change their direction before it is too late.” DW also reported that (1) spiritual advisor Sheikh Abdel Rahman was also killed, (2) Tips and intelligence from Iraqi senior leaders from his network led forces to al-Zarqawi and some of his associates, who were conducting a meeting in a safe house, (3) Iraqi police were first on the scene after the air strike, and elements of Multinational Division North, arrived shortly thereafter, and (4) Coalition Forces were able to identify al-Zarqawi by fingerprint verification, facial recognition and known scars.”
Further detail from the Washington Post: An Iraq Interior Ministry inspector general, who refused to be identified, said an aide of Zarqawi was arrested last night in a raid by U.S. and Iraqi special-operations forces. The aide led U.S. and Iraqi officials to a site outside Baghdad, the Interior Ministry official said. After a fierce firefight, authorities entered the site and found the bodies of 13 people. The captured aide identified one as Zarqawi. The Interior Ministry refused to say the site, but Iraqiya and Arabiya TV said the raid occurred north of Baquba. Brig. Gen. Raad al-Timimi of the Interior Ministry said Thursday morning that authorities had confirmed “100 percent’’ it was Zarqawi.
Other reports from Aljazeera, the Wall Street Journal (subscription), the Financial Times, which said the news conference was televised, The Times, The Guardian, Reuters, CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, The Jerusalem Post, Haaretz
Surely, this will give a big boost to Maliki’s bon fides. Maybe it will get Haditha off the front pages (at least for a while) and increase the U.S. public’s support for the war (as it provides hope that there’s light at the end of the tunnel). Obviously, this is the best news in a long, long time. May Zarqawi rest in hell. Where will bin Laden and Zawahiri get money now? What will #1 and #2 say now?
Other bloggers on the story: Iraq the Model, All Things Beautiful, blogenlust, Counterterrorism Blog, AMERICAblog, PoliPundit, Samizdata, Wizbang!, The Education Wonks, BLACKFIVE, The American Mind, Taylor Marsh, Amygdala, and Michelle Malkin.
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi Killed (Video) (Updating)
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is dead, finally killed in one of the air strikes sent in to do the job.
[Unless otherwise noted, all boldface emphases mine.]
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, al-Qaida’s leader in Iraq who led a bloody campaign of suicide bombings and…
Very good news indeed. I’m sure there are some pleased Jordanians as well.
I have said for over 20 years now that the most important message we can send to terrorists is that “No Place Is Safe For You.” Make them realize that they can be safe in their beds in the basement of the Kremlin and a Mk 82 bomb can still come knocking.
That is the message the April 1986 F-111F raid on Libya sent. The message was lost during the 90’s; it is being rediscovered now.
The fact that it was an airstrike that came with no warning only makes it better. Live in terror, terrorists.
Marc,
Your first thoughts sound pretty good to me. One additional element is that the power struggle will make noise, and I assume the good guys will be listening and acting on it.
I have a question. My TV died 2 days ago, so I haven’t been able to watch the Beeb. Did any of their reporters choke up when they discussed this?
Let’s hope that they found a jammed weapon by his side. I recall he had problems clearing jams in his most recent video. That would be priceless.
The struggle to replace him might not be long or important. It is a pretty decentralized organization, so I expect someone will simply be more charismatic than the others and end up as first among equals.
What I hope to see are some paranoid revenge killings/purges among the terrorists. Everyone must be wondering who led the coalition forces to Zarqawi.
[...] More at All Things Beautiful, Captain’s Quarters, Atlas Shrugs, The Anchoress, Power Line, Michelle Malkin, Iraq the Model, Mark in Mexico, Hot Air, Wizbang, Hugh Hewitt, Counterterrorism Blog, Outside the Beltway, Stop the ACLU, American Future, Blackfive, Blue Crab Boulevard, Right Wing Nut House, Right Winged, Sister Toldja, Confederate Yankee, Real Clear Politics, Publius Pundit, MilBlogs, Libertarian Leanings, Gateway Pundit. [...]
Waking up to the news of Zarqawis demise was a treat. As one of my professor’s would say “Couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy!”
That said, I do think that this is no time for overtly optimistic assessments. Piglito is right, the organization far and large is pretty decentralized and there are many others who can replace Zarqawi in no time (recall how quickly the Saudi head of al Qaeda was replaced). True, many of these were killed quickly thereafter, but there was always a replacement waiting in the wind, and there always will be. So, I don’t believe that there will be too much of a power struggle to replace him.
Further, even if there is, the foreign jihadist element in Iraq has for some time been more of a nuissance to our efforts there than the real threat to goals there. The real threats are native sunni militias that continue to refuse joining the current government and have local support to carry their anti-coalition activities. These will be harder to kill, or coopt (as those than can be coopted already have been). In addition, Zarqawi was a foreigner, and one who was not good at PR since everytime he spoke he alienated Iraqis more and more. The other and perhaps more important threat comes from the shiite militias that have infiltrated all of the security services and begun to implement their visions of Sharia in different parts of the country. Much of the south is ruled by them, and their laws are almost as restrictive as those of the sunni jihadists with regard to the population.
Sectarianism is now the biggest enemy, and as new attacks between Shiites and Sunnis continue to increase, it will matter not that Zarqawi is dead.
It is a great victory for us that he has been terminated, there is no doubt about it, but we must keep his death in perspective. He is not bin Laden, nor is he Zawahiri. In fact, his death may actually help these, as they were begin to feel the impact of his rising star among the al Qaeda faithful everywhere. With him gone, they remain the undisputed leaders of the jihad. With that point made, by all means let’s celebrate the fact that this evil and sadistic man is dead, but keep in mind that the struggle is far from over. He is but one man, charismatic yes, but one man in the end.
How long do you think it will take for the Kos kidz to declare this assassination a Rovian conspiracy to distract attention from Haditha?
My thoughts here on my newly-resurrected blog.