This is something new for me: a book review. If I get a favorable response (meaning lots of comments, both positive and negative), I’ll do more.
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Stephen M. Walt, the author of Taming American Power is one of the leading practitioners of the neo-realist school of international relations theory.
- The term realism comes from the German realpolitik. It focuses on the balance of power among nation-states. Realpolitik is foreign policy based on practical concerns (political expediency) rather than ideals or ethics. Neo-Realism differs from classical realism by focusing on the international system rather than human nature.
Walt has impressive credentials. He is Academic Dean at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He has been a Resident Associate of the Carnegie Endowment for Peace and a Guest Scholar at the Brookings Institution, and a consultant for the Institute of Defense Analyses, the Center for Naval Analyses, and the National Defense University. He serves on the editorial boards of Foreign Policy, Security Studies, International Relations, and Journal of Cold War Studies, and as Co-Editor of the Cornell Studies in Security Affairs. He was elected a Fellow in the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in May 2005.
With this resume, it’s clear that Walt is an opinion leader in both government and academic circles. Notwithstanding his outstanding credentials and considerable influence, I have serious problems, on both methodological and substantive grounds, with his latest book.
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Taming American Power is a book about relations between and among states. Walt’s starting point is a wide-ranging description of the sources and manifestations of American primacy. Then, in the most insightful part of the book (“The Roots of Resentment”), he does a superlative job of describing the ways that others see America and why their perceptions differ from how we picture ourselves. The following two chapters discuss the strategies foreign governments employ in their relations with an America that is much more powerful than they are. These strategies fall into two broad categories—opposition and accomodation, each of which is broken down into several sub-categories. In the final chapter, Walt sets forth a foreign policy that he believes would be in our national interest.
Neo-Realism In an Era of Terrorism
In my view, Walt has considerable difficulty fitting al Qaeda and other Islamic terror organizations into his conceptual framework. This is probably true for most or all neo-realists. A school of thought that has the balance of power as its foundational principle is ill-equipped to understand a world in which the primary security threat is from transnational, religiously-inspired terrorist groups. For the U.S. or any other country to base a foreign policy on the assumption that al Qaeda will respond to carrots and sticks in the same manner as states would be the height of folly.
Many more states are threatened by al Qaeda and/or al Qaeda-inspired terrorism than by aggression from another state. Given the nature of the threat and the unmatched strength of the U.S. military, balance of power theory, if it is to have any validity in the current era, would have to say that other states would have moved into ever-closer relationships with America in the years since 9/11. Except for heightened behind-the-scenes cooperation within the intelligence community, quite the reverse has happened. The counter-argument is that, as has been shown in several public opinion polls, many populations fear U.S. power more than terrorism—even if their governments do not. It would be absurd for America to assign a greater priority to appeasing foreign publics than to eliminating terrorists.
If al Qaeda and the like were not part of the equation, Walt’s thesis—that the Bush Doctrine, because it has intensified anti-Americanism among peoples and governments, and allies and enemies—would have merit. But, not only is al Qaeda part of the equation, it is the most important part of the equation. Given that there is scant evidence that the policies of the Bush Administration has undermined relationships among intelligence organizations, it is far from clear that altering these policies in a manner that would lessen anti-Americanism would aid in the fight against al Qaeda. There may be—and, in my opinion, there is— a trade-off between improving our relations with foreign governments and our overseas approval ratings, and the efficacy of our efforts to defang the Islamic terrorists.
Islamic Terrorism
The most disturbing aspect of Walt’s book is that it displays only a superficial understanding of the nature of the threat from Islamic terrorism. He does not mention the jihadis’ long-term strategy of re-establishing the Caliphate and shows no evidence of having read Sayyid Qutb and other Islamist authors. Accordingly, he mistakes their tactics for their strategy. Not surprisingly, then, his policy recommendations are ill-conceived and, in my judgment, would facilitate rather than undermine their ability to achieve their objective.
As a result of his misperceptions, he believes that U.S. foreign policy, in general, and American support of Israel, in particular, are the root causes of the terrorists’ antipathy toward us:
- . . . international terrorists have not attacked the United States or its allies because they are opposed to U.S. values, or even primarily because they are worried about U.S. power. Instead, they have targeted the United States because they oppose its global military presence and the policies that presence is supporting. (p. 87)
- Although bin Laden is sometimes critical of American culture, his actions throughout his career have been inspired primarily by opposition to the specific policies of particular states . . . Indeed, bin Laden emphasized in October 2004 that he and his followers were not at war against “freedom,†which is why they did not strike countries like Sweden. (p. 85)
- U.S. Middle East policy is one of the main reasons why terrorists like Osama bin Laden want to attack the United States . . . Even worse, America’s tacit (and, at times, active) support for Israeli expansionism makes bin Laden and his ilk look like prophets and heroes rather than murderous criminals. (p. 234) [emphasis added]
- . . . if the United States can portray those who use terrorism as criminals driven largely by a selfish desire for power, then a terrorist campaign is likely to fail. (p. 138)
In addition to not appreciating the nature of the threat, he appears to underestimate its severity and potential impact on the U.S. How else can these words be explained?
- If the United States responds [to terrorism] in a harsh and indiscriminate manner, it will merely vindicate the terrorists’ own use of violence and reinforce their image as heroic opponents of foreign oppression. (p. 138)
- [Unlike during the Cold War], a hierarchy of [U.S.] interests is less apparent. There is no clear and fixed enemy – even al Qaeda is too diffuse a threat to provide that focus – which means it is more difficult to identify a clear and fixed set of priorities. (p. 196) [emphasis added]
- Although the United States should take every reasonable step to prevent another terrorist attack, it could absorb a replay of September 11 once every ten years and continue to thrive as a society. (p. 237)
Rogue States and Nuclear Proliferation
Within the span of 14 pages, Walt proffers two statements that contradict each other.
- The danger that rogue regimes will give away WMD is extremely remote . . . a rogue state that obtained WMD could not be sure that the United States would not retaliate if it merely suspected that they had transferred weapons to a terrorist group. (p. 224) [emphasis in the original]
Acting on suspicion means pre-emption, which Walt strongly opposes.
- The risk of nuclear terrorism will . . . increase if more and more countries acquire nuclear weapons of their own. (p. 238)
In discussing his policy recommendations (to be described shortly), Walt includes words I interpret as a reference to Iran:
- [This strategy] would . . . not try to use U.S. military power to impose democracy on other countries or to disarm potential proliferators. (p. 222)
The United Nations
Walt is a multilateralist with a high regard for the UN. Commenting on the run-up to the Iraq war, he says that
- America’s opponents [in the Security Council] sought to prevent the use of force in this particular instance, while simultaneously strengthening the authority of the UN system. (p. 146)
There is an alternative perspective that I share: by not authorizing the use of force to punish a serial violator of Security Council resolutions, America’s opponents weakened the UN, setting it on the same path as the ignominious road followed by the League of Nations.
A few pages later, he avers that
- . . . the world community has an established procedure for legitimating the use of military force, a procedure that the U.S. doctrine of pre-emption violates. (p. 162) [emphasis in the original]
Here, Walt ignores the fact that the Security Council has authorized the use of military force only twice in its history (Korea in 1950 and Iraq in 1990). This hardly constitutes an “established procedure.”
Policy Recommendations
Walt proposes that offshore balancing is “the ideal grand strategy for an era of U.S. primacy”:
- In this strategy, the United States deploys its power abroad only when there are direct threats to vital U.S. interests. Offshore balancing assumes that only a few areas of the globe are of strategic importance . . . [Included in this category are] Europe, industrialized Asia and the Persian Gulf. Offshore balancing further recognizes that the United States does not need to control these areas directly; it merely needs to ensure that they do not fall under the control of a hostile Great Power and especially not under the control of a so-called peer competitor. (p. 222)
Three items are worthy of note here: first, in talking of areas of strategic importance, he references Great Powers, but not al Qaeda; second, by his definition, Pakistan and Afghanistan are not considered to be strategically important; and third, while Walt claims that “offshore balancing is not isolationist,” it sounds like it’s only one step removed.
As to winning the War on Terror, he believes that the necessary and seemingly sufficient condition is for the U.S. to lay it on the line with Israel:
- If the United States wants to win the war on terrorism, it must find a way to reverse the steady deterioration of its standing in this critical part [the Middle East] of the world . . . the United States should use its considerable leverage to bring the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to an end, [which includes pressuring Israel] to withdraw from virtually all territories it occupied in June 1967, in return for full peace. If Israel remains unwilling to grant the Palestinians a viable state . . . the United States should end its economic and military support . . . The United States will still support the continued existence of a Jewish state (the same way that we support a Norwegian state, a Thai state, a Polish state, etc.), and it would be prepared to help if Israel’s survival were threatened. (pp. 233-234)
His perspective is a further indication—as if one were necessary—that he fails to comprehend the true nature of the jihadi threat, to both America and Israel. Also worth noting is the fact that he does not define “full peace” or how to achieve it, and ignores the fact that Israel—but not Norway, Thailand, and Poland—faces an existential threat.
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I am amazed that someone of Walt’s stature could so completely misread today’s threat environment, and I can only hope that, should a Democrat (or a “dovish” Republican, for that matter) be elected President in 2008, he will not follow Walt’s advice. Even if this does not occur, I am deeply concerned that Walt’s views will influence a generation of students—Harvard students, at that.
Thanks for this review, Marc. You’ve whetted my appetite for the whole work. I think that you might give some of his thoughts a little more credit. For example, I think that American foreign policy (largely the construct of the other realists) WRT the Middle East is, indeed, a major factor in making the US an Al-Qaeda target. Another, as you quite rightly point out, is American soft power. The issue is less that they’re root causes but whether we can or should change the policies.
However, on one point he’s completely off the rails:
Uh, no. He obviously hasn’t looked at the numbers. The attack on September 11, 2001 sucked about a trillion dollars out of the U. S. economy almost immediately and has sucked an additional trillion out (over a five year period) since then. We’re growing fast but not fast enough to absorb that kind of damage every ten years.
Dave, I concur that US foreign policy in the Middle East was largely a construct of other realists and that it was the realists’ policies that were a major factor in making the US an al Qaeda target.
In a way, that’s precisely my point. When these earlier realists were calling the shots, terrorism was not the primary security threat to the US. At the same time, their policies gave birth to a terrorist threat that first manifested itself with the 1993 bombing of the WTC. With this history, why should it now be the case that the same foreign policy theory that gave birth to today’s primary threat would also be the most effective at extinquishing it?
Messages from the Holy Spirit on The Holy Inheritance blog and the Christian Prophet blog are convincing me that we human beings haven’t got the slightest idea what is real, so it would be better to not pretend some “realism” but search for spiritual solutions. The question is what government, or what cadre of intellectual commentators, really knows how to look for nevermind find spiritual solutions? The world’s problems and perceived threats will all be handled, but many will have to shift away from their preconceived ideas in the process.
(Sigh).
Is it worth noting—still again—that our continued emphasis in academia upon the dueling duality of realist and idealist theories of International Relations never correctly predicted 9/11, the consequence of supporting theofascists against the expansion of communism, the complete collapse of Lenin’s house of cards ‘without firing a shot,’ 800,000 butchered within 100 days in Rwanda, or the secret Molokov/Von Ribbentrop agreement?
For any theory to be scientific, it must be both predictive and duplicable. In Popper’s famous term, a scientific theory must also be “falsifiable,” which leaves out just about all of the ‘social’ sciences.
Realism and idealist theories fail scientifically on all counts. Yet still, we study and teach (another sigh) International Relations in academia with two failed, utterly pedantic exercises in onanism. ‘Neo-realist’ is but a shadow of a ghost.
Marc’s review is wonderful. His disquiet of the author’s ‘neo-realist’ views touch upon the frowning disappointment we all develop 9hopefully) whenever some don at the university offers an ex posto facto ‘explanation’: If their theory had ANY scientific validity, then WHERE was the a priori prediction of events?
Mr. Schuler’s comment is also telling: for the author to characterize a 9/11 event as ‘tolerable’ once every decade illustrates the intellectual vacuousness of an International Relations non-theory posing as policy.
I liked the book review by Marc; look forward to more.
‘Be free.’
Dave, if realism “largely contributed” to the problem why should I believe that realism can provide the solution?
“The issue is less that they’re root causes but whether we can or should change the policies.”
I agree. In fact we have changed policies, so this statement while accurate is about 4 years out of date.
The US would be a target of al Qaeda no matter what policies we had. They have their own agenda. We could change our policies yet their agenda would remain the same. As long as we are a country that has not submitted to Bin Laden’s brand of Islam we are the enemy. And if we stand up and advocate for freedom, human rights, democracy, individual liberty, and the inherent right to live one’s life free of the threat of Zarqawi’s beheaders then we will certainly attract their attention. Should we abandon everything that we believe in to avoid the heat of Bin Laden’s glare? Should we shroud our foreign policy in a burkha and hope that we can meekly avoid his rage?
I don’t believe realism is very realistic. And it certainly isn’t appropriate for a nation like America founded upon the radical ideology of limited gov’t and individual liberty.
“There is no clear and fixed enemy – even al Qaeda is too diffuse a threat to provide that focus – which means it is more difficult to identify a clear and fixed set of priorities.”
Who believes this kind of thing? So because a guy has a spectacular resume and writes a book we are automatically expected to take seriously what he writes? Yet we do have to take it seriously, not because it is right, but because as Marc says “I am deeply concerned that Walt’s views will influence a generation of students”
And that’s the thing: ideas are important. It is not just some academic intellectual exercise that has no consequences. What happpens in the realm of ideas is just as important as what happens on the battlefield or on the police beat. Since the Enlightenment we have seen an incredible explosion of ideas on every conceivable subject and since then we have seen bad ideas generate the most horrible consequences. We have endured ideological perfect storms and the reason we have been able to survive as a country is because of the ideals and institutions rooted in our founding era. Realism dismisses all of that and proposes that the US as the sole superpower should abandon its principles at the water’s edge. The US as sole superpower, must have a foreign policy that embodies our ideals rather abandons them. The ideals of the American founding are realistic because over the past 200 years they have been proven to work, whereas socialism, communism, fascism, nationalism, and the progressive movement have proven to be failures. If Islamic fundamentalists are enraged at the US then maybe we’re doing something right. Isn’t it interesting that those countries and people who have most strongly opposed the US are those who despise individual liberty, the rule of law, and the freedom to live one’s life according to ones own notion of the good life rather than that imposed by the party, the state, the social model, the tribe, the race, the one true religion?
I find Walt’s prescriptions laughable. Even if he were perfectly right, he is projecting today’s environment on to tomorrow. Most of the critics of Bush’s foreign policy have this very now-centric focus, which leads them to see folly instead of foresight. Criticism of missile defense is often of this nature. Of course the system doesn’t work anywhere near fully right now, but Iran and others will have missiles that can reach Europe within a decade and America within two decades. Thus we must begin experimenting and developing now. Similarly, Bush’s grand vision for a democratic Middle East is trying to head off the crisis which will come in that region of the world when either their oil dries up or the world moves off of oil a few decades from now, which ever comes first. So we are in a race against this clock with Al Qaeda for the soul of the Middle East. If we were to follow Walt’s advice—which is esentially to do nothing to change the political culture of this region—the Salafists would probably win out in the long term making his argument about the unliiklihood of WMDs being passed from rogue states to terrorists irrelevant. The terrorists would be the rogue state. Even in the absence of this nightmare, the proliferation of technology is not just to the benefit of rogue regimes but also to non-state actors directly as Ray Kurzweil pointed out in his book The Singuarlty is Near. Even absent the flaws that Marc deftfully points out, Walt’s worldview breaks down with the crumbling of the present order. We can already see the beginnings of its demise with the weakening and I predict eventual dissolution (officially or non-officially) of the Non-Proliferation Treaty as seen with the violators North Korea and Iran. Taming American Power should not be the objective. Rather convincing our friends and prospective friends of the merit of our political goals and the order which we are trying to craft. Part of this persuasion strategy should be to bring them in the decision-making process in a manner that gives them a stake in a successful outcome. Dr. Barnett describes this as the A-Z rule set for processing politically bankcrupt states. If we cannot convince them we must limit their ability to inhibit our actions and if necessary completely bipass the UN, which is corrupt and ineffective anyways. Many of these obstructors such as France benefit from the status quo and also fear a loss of power in what they regard as their spheres of influence, demonstrating the hollowness of their cries against “American hegemony.” Most of the world does not understand how much they benefit from the global security environment which America provides. Would they have us be less powerful, unable to patrol the sea lanes vital for commerce? Would they rather have an arms race in a South Asia uncertain of our ability to provide security? Would they rather have no one to resist the terrorists at their source, the Middle East? And if they would rather not have these things who will they put in our place? France? China? Russia? Such countries would not show the restraint that we have demonstrated thus far; just ask the citizens of Algeria, Tibet, or Chechnya. If America falls from its present position, I think the rest of the world would find that they missed it indeed.
Dave—
I welcome your initial foray into book reviews. It will be very interesting to compare your review with those that appear in the New York Review of Books, the New York Times Book Review, Commentary and elsewhere.
Given the ugly consequences of realpolitik in Cambodia, the Sudan, Turkey (from 1895 to 1921), as well the entire history of slavery under Islam, I am less and less inclined to agree with this line of reasoning. It’s hard to compromise between the supposed “real political” world, and the “real” world that exists despite whatever the Stalino-Fascists at the United Nations and their Kennedy/Kerry/Dean/Byrd/Pelosi/Durbin collaborators want us to believe.
What are Walt’s thoughts on the ugly, centuries-long reality of Islamic slavery/genocide in the Sudan? Perhaps he would like to tell us about how Saudi Royal family members get excused for excersing slavery within the United States. As far as this later bunch is concerned, vigilantes are required for imposing justice on a group of criminals that don’t understand anything other than that! The ACLU, the courts, and the liberal Democrats simply don’t have the guts to enforce the vision of the Abolitionists.
By all means, more book reviews.
[...] Stephen Walt doesn’t seem to understand this. It is time for people of goodwill from every faith and nation to recognize that a terrible danger threatens humanity. We cannot afford to continue “business as usual” in the face of this existential threat. [...]
I agree with criticism directed against Prof. Walt. He seems to believe that it is benificial to the U.S. to refrain from supporting Israel when the opposit is true.
Is he being honest? Israel is clearly a strategic ally of the U.S. in military matters, in financial matters, and there is a great friendship and understanding between the two peoples.
I agree with the critique of realism vs. idealism. The dichotomy like so many others is false.
Islamic terrorism is a joke. They had a fluke success with 911. Why? Because as security staff from Israel Airlines [El Al—Ed.] pointed out afterwards U.S. airport security was worthless.
A few months before 911 some crazy guy in Europe walked into a cockpit and almost crashed a plane. If some crazy guy could do it, than why not some terrorists.
And forget that nonsense about them being well prepared and planning everything etc… It was not that hard to do given the poor security.
Iraq is coming around and things are starting to get better. Iran is next.
That is unless the Chinese and Russians can get in the way.
Prof. Walt should come right out and state that he is on the side of the terrorists. He supports their goals, at least that would be honest.
Marc,
As I told you in an email, I enjoyed your review. I will say, though, that there’s a certain lack of substantive engagement. In particular, you assume that it is self-evident that Walt is wrong, but you don’t really provide counter-warrants. This would be much more convincing if you did; an unsympathetic audience is not likely to find the review persuasive.
I think this is most telling in the context of Walt’s arguments about the “doctrine of preemption.” If right, he effectively severs the link between Bush strategy and an effective counter-terrorism effort.
1) There is, on balance, more evidence that such doctrines will encourage “rogue state” proliferation than prevent it;
2) There is certainly zero evidence that it deters proliferation (Libya, for reasons we can get into, is not a good case for the proposition that it does)
3) It is clearly beyond US capabilities to implement the policy broadly enough to actually stop would-be proliferators (could the US prevent Iran from proliferating using the doctrine in the status quo? almost certainly not).
Regarding the critique of the author’s views on Islamic terrorism. I think you just missed a very important historical fact. The writings of Sayed Qutb and his likes followed the beggning of the formation of the state of Israel. And unfortunately Walt conclusion that he believes “that U.S. foreign policy, in general, and American support of Israel, in particular, are the root causes of the terrorists’ antipathy toward us” is true. We in the Middle East are badly suffering the consequetives of the Israeli & US policies that are providing the oppresive regimes in the region and the fanatic groups with an excellent excuse to maintain their opression since “we” have to concetrate n the foreign threat coming from the US and Israel who both wish to destroy the heritage of Islam and establish their own kingdom of God.. And ourse Dubya is giving them npow all the excuses to pursue their destructive policies.
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